Tristero: "The Odds
Courtesy Bill Bennett Memorial Betting Parlor, who compiled the stats.

Probability that:

Tonight's debate will be cancelled due to 'national emergency' .15

Next debate will be cancelled due to 'national emergency' if Kerry clearly wins tonight .95

Bush will storm off the stage in a fury before the debate ends .20

Bush will grimace and smirk .37

Bush will not lose his temper .50

Bush will blatantly lie either about Kerry, the economy, or taxes 1.00

Bush will blatantly lie about all three, above 1.00

Either candidate will mention Abu Ghraib .025

Either candidate will mention Guantanamo .015

Bush will repeat bogus figure of 10 million Afghans registered to vote .95

Kerry will correct bogus Afghan figures .50

Bush will mention Kerry by name more than twice .0005

Kerry will call Bush 'my opponent' or 'Mr. Bush' rather than 'the President' more than twice .0005

Kerry will mention Herbert Hoover in context of job loss .85

Bush will describe the net job losses of the past four years as 'job growth' .99

Bush will charge Kerry with 'class warfare' by proposing that wealthy pay their fair share .90

Kerry will get overly technical in explaining why 'class warfare' is a fallacious charge .50

Bush will win on the substance .00

Bush will win on style and persuasiveness .50

TV Pundits will call the debate for Bush if he lies but doesn't smirk or get visibly angry .90

TV Pundits will call the debate for Kerry if he tells the truth but uses the word a word like 'aggrandize' even once .01

Bush will mention 9/11 and the speech at Ground Zero on 9/12 1.00

The neglect of the country's security by Bush before 9/11 will be mentioned .00003

Bush will actually use the words 'flip-flop' to describe Kerry's position on issue X . 60

Bush's Texas drawl and 'aw shucks' mannerisms will get more pronounced .75

Bush will invoke some God-esque imagery 1.00

Kerry will mention God, other than in closing .60

Bush will make a surprise announcement that Osama has been captured or killed .11

Kerry will compare Bush to Nixon .20

Kerry will layout a plan for issue x, Bush will say he doesn't have a plan, pundits will agree with Bush .99
posted by tristero permanent link to this entry 8:18 AM "


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